Training During a Pandemic

What are the consequences of unrestricted aikido practice if an infectious student participates in class?

The pandemic Coronavirus is spread principally by respiratory droplets, with a contribution from contact spread.. The virus is introduced into the nose or mouth by either breathing it in, in the case of droplets, or by touching the nose or mouth with an object contaminated with virus.

The danger zone for respiratory droplets depends upon many factors, but is generally agreed to extend at least 6 feet from the person exhaling virus.

It is important to understand that people infected with the virus can manifest no symptoms at all, or minimal symptoms easily attributed to some other noninfectious condition, and that neither coughing nor sneezing are required to expel infectious droplets. The mere act of breathing produces infectious droplets, and with each breath millions of viruses are excreted into the air.

Under the conditions of unrestrained empty handed aikido practice, where everyone trains with anyone, and where prolonged close physical contact occurs, the transmission of the Coronavirus by both the droplet route and by physical transfer will be maximized if an infected person participates in class. As a consequence, depending upon the peculiarities of who trains with whom in a given class, it is easily possible for a substantial fraction of attendees to that class to be successfully exposed to the Coronavirus and acquire the illness, potentially 100% of attendees. As such an infected person might attend multiple classes during the 2 weeks s/he is infectious, potentially the entire dojo membership could be successfully exposed. Depending upon the age and underlying health of the dojo members, there could easily be hospitalizations and deaths.

Can a screening program keep infectious individuals from participating in unrestricted aikido classes?

In short, no.

A screening program will minimize the number of such individuals participating in class but cannot achieve 0 such individuals. This is, in particular, due to the significant percentage of individuals who are infected and contagious but lack any symptoms. The problem is compounded by the lack of widespread, affordable, and rapid testing, which could identify infected individuals in a timely manner, as well as the many infected individuals who may have symptoms, just not cough or fever, and who may escape symptom based screening. As a result, no screening program ever implemented has, in fact, been successful in keeping an infected individual from, sooner or later, escaping detection and exposing others.

Can aikido practice be modified to eliminate the risk of exposure?

Probably not, if it is meant to mean it is impossible to be exposed as a consequence of attending modified aikido practice. If, instead, what is meant is that it is highly unlikely, given that the rules are followed, to be exposed, then the answer is yes. Unfortunately, that will mandatorily require discontinuation of one-on-one taijitsu, as no such close contact is possible without a substantial risk of exposure. Only individual practice, with individual weapons, is possible, employing the out of doors, distancing and, ideally, mask-wearing. The use of the dojo bathroom, and the dojo, will have to be interdicted, and socializing before and after class discouraged.

Once a vaccine is routinely available all of this changes.

Once every dojo member (and individual likely to be exposed as a natural result of being in the dojo) who wishes to attend open handed class has been infected, and survived, this can change.

Until one of those two outcomes has occurred, participation in open handed one-on-one aikido class risks exposure to the coronavirus and all the attendant consequences.

David spent years as the chief epidemiologist for Dallas County. This coupled with achieving Dan rank in our dojo and beyond puts him in a unique position to comment on our response to the pandemic.

David Buhner, M.D.